La Liga is back! Season guide with predictions for the title, Europe and relegation

La Liga is back with a bang – as if it almost never left – we take a look at how things are shaping up for the key battles of the season. 

Title Race

Well, the champions are favourites to be champions again. When you add Kylian Mbappe to a side that won three trophies last year, it’s quite hard to look past them. Endrick Felipe has also arrived, but has his work cut out just to get on the pitch.

The loss of Joselu Mato might have more of an impact than some may think, and there are two questions for Ancelotti to answer. The Mbappe fit is probably overblown, but the Toni Kroos absence is not. His pausa may be replicated at times by Luka Modric, but he’ll be a miss. There’s also the defence, which just cannot escape injuries, and now is Nacho Fernandez-less.

There are more questions about Barcelona. Dani Olmo has arrived and presumably will be registered. Not many big names have left. It leaves Barcelona with questions over a new manager in a new culture who is yet to speak the language in public. There are still question marks over their midfield setup, and Robert Lewandowski does not look as young as he says he feels.

On the other hand, Lamine Yamal is fast becoming one of the best players in the world, and there is still a bundle of quality in that squad, despite the gaps. If Flick can coach around the gaps, they weren’t miles off it at times last season. And it’s worth pointing out Barcelona did not play well for much of the season, so simply regressing to the mean would make a big difference.

And then there’s Atletico Madrid. We see you making a marquee signing, we see you spending big. Robin Le Normand and Alexander Sorloth are solid additions, but probably don’t move the needle in a title race, whereas Julian Alvarez, if he plays close to his ceiling, can. They still need to see how their window plays out too. That said, they were a long way off the pace for the last two seasons, so they will first focus on getting clear of the pack.

Logic and reason suggest it’s Real Madrid‘s to lose, despite reasons for optimism for the challengers. We don’t like football because it’s predictable though.

Prediction: Real Madrid to win it. (John Menzies, Feargal Brennan, Ruairidh Barlow)

European Race

All three of our experts have the title contenders placing top three, so we’re into the race for the rest of the European spots. There’s a lot still to shake out in the transfer market.

Girona have lost the spine of their team, and it looks as if it might be a tough ask for a European finish again, as they add ten Champions League fixtures to their schedule too. Athletic Club are on a high as it looks like they will keep Nico Williams, and have added Andoni Gorosabel and Alvaro Djalo. Ernesto Valverde’s side are also competing in Europe for the first time in seven years though too, so that will impact on their intense and physical approach, as well as their high line.

Basque rivals Real Sociedad are well-used to the rigmarole of European fixtures at this point, and they too have kept a prized asset in Martin Zubimendi, but outside of that, it’s been a tricky window. Imanol Alguacil still doesn’t have a striker – he doesn’t think Umar Sadiq is the one for him – and it they will likely lose Mikel Merino.

Real Betis are having a familiar summer, where they make a few solid additions, see Natan, Marc Roca, Diego Llorente, Ricardo Rodriguez, but then lose a number of key pieces too; Chadi Riad, Ayoze Perez, Willian Jose and Guido Rodriguez. Manuel Pellegrini’s trapeze act is nothing if not consistent though, and they will be there or there abouts.

Valencia, RCD Mallorca, Sevilla and Osasuna are the outside shouts depending on how their seasons go, which is a show of how disastrous the last two years have been for Los Nervionenses. The gate-crashers are Villarreal. Marcelino Garcia Toral finally looked like he was fixing things towards the end of last season, and they have talent. Whisper it, Alex Baena might stay too.

Their top scorer Sorloth has not, and they are yet to adequately replace him. Pape Gueye, Nicolas Pepe and Willy Kambwala are interesting additions, and they need a goalkeeper too. Doubt Marcelino at your peril though.

Top Four:

Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal – JM

Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Real Sociedad – FB

Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal – RB

European Places (5th, 6th, 7th):

Athletic Club, Real Sociedad, Real Betis – JM

Athletic Club, Villarreal, Girona – FB

Real Sociedad, Athletic Club, Real Betis – RB

Relegation Battle

Here’s where it gets tough. Leganes came up as champions last season, but neither were they particularly free-scoring. That will be their issue, as Borja Jimenez built a solid defence in a highly competitive Segunda, and will rely on Miguel de la Fuente and Diego Garcia for goals.

Second were Real Valladolid, who were nothing if not curious. Manager Paulo Pezzolano has a love-hate relationship with the fans, while President Ronaldo Nazario has veered towards the latter of late. They have brought in plenty of Liga experience but are still lacking goals too, with none of Juanmi Latasa, Marcos Andre and Moussa Sylla possessing a track record.

Detect a theme? Espanyol lost top goalscorer Martin Braithwaite, and are yet to replace him. Plenty of their squad remains from their relegation two years ago, which shouldn’t really have gone down. The inexperienced Manolo Martinez took over to the end of last season and guided Los Pericos through the play-offs, and has the chance of a lifetime after spending the majority of his career in lower leagues in Catalonia.

Rayo Vallecano became goal-avoidant last season in spite of their talented frontline, but Inigo Perez will be hoping that he can arrest their downward trajectory since Andoni Iraola left. He is largely handling the same squad. Getafe have the quality to stay up, and a manager to do so in Jose Bordalas, but kicked off the campaign with just 17 players in their squad, and concern is at fever pitch at the Coliseum.

Another former B team coach in Claudio Giraldez is in at Celta Vigo, who have sold Jorgen Strand Larsen, but brought home Borja Iglesias as a replacement. Celta will likely be in amongst it, but Giraldez’s side were not purely Iago Aspas-dependent down the stretch. Alaves have sold Luis Garcia Plaza on continuity, and while Samu Omorodion has left, have made a series of useful additions, including Asier Villalibre from Athletic. It will come down to whether they can replicate the same intensity at Mendizorroza.

Osasuna should be fine, but have said goodbye to stalwart David Garcia and manager Jagoba Arrasate, who is now at RCD Mallorca. They do have Bryan Zaragoza on loan from Bayern Munich though, who Vicente Moreno can supply Ante Budimir with. Arrasate’s Mallorca have not been busy either, but they had the raw materials to stay up last season despite their Copa del Rey distraction.

Finally, Las Palmas are the ninth side who could conceivably head down. Luis Carrion has replaced Garcia Pimienta (who went to Sevilla) and has a tough job on his hands. Their form fell off a Canary cliff last season, and have lost Sergi Cardona and Saul Coco. Their recruitment has at least been intriguing though, with Scott Mckenna, Oli McBurnie, Jaime Mata, Adnan Januzaj and Jasper Cillessen all coming ashore.

Relegation:

Leganes, Rayo Vallecano, Real Valladolid – JM

Leganes, Real Valladolid, Espanyol – FB

Leganes, Las Palmas, Real Valladolid – RB

Surprise of the Season:

• RCD Mallorca to finish top eight – JM
• Valencia: Always liable for an implosion but Ruben Baraja can guide them to the European battle – FB
• Mallorca and Villarreal will finish above their projections, but backing Celta Vigo to not be in the relegation battle in the final two matchdays for once – RB.

Pichichi

Kylian Mbappe – JM

Robert Lewandowski – FB

Kylian Mbappe – RB

Breakout Star

Peque/Marc Bernal – JM

Arda Guler/Benat Turrientes – FB

Benat Turrientes/Cristhian Mosquera – RB

Player of the Season

Vinicius Junior – JM

Vinicius Junior – FB

Kylian Mbappe – RB